Executive Summary

Q2 2025 headline: Revenue of $17.98M and diluted EPS of ($14.58), reflecting large non-cash charges tied to the citrus wind-down; Adjusted EBITDA turned positive to $12.7M on land gains and pricing tailwinds in citrus contracts . Revenue and EPS missed S&P consensus ($22.20M rev, ($0.36) EPS) materially, driven by accelerated depreciation and asset impairments; 1 estimate on each metric indicates low coverage depth (see Estimates Context) [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*.
Strategic pivot execution advanced: last major citrus harvest completed in April; workforce reduced from ~200 to 25; leasing ~5,250 acres to third-party growers next season, and diversifying land usage (sod, mining, seasonal crops) .
Guidance expanded/raised: FY25 land sales outlook lifted to potentially >$50M (from ~$20M); introduced FY25 targets of ~$20M Adjusted EBITDA, ~$25M year-end cash, and ~$60M net debt; ample liquidity with ~$88.5M revolver availability and no significant maturities until 2029 .
Real estate catalyst building: Corkscrew Grove Villages entitlement application filed in March with construction possible in 2028/29 if approvals granted; management cites $650–$750M present value for current landholdings over time, with ~10% entitled in ~5 years .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Adjusted EBITDA swung positive to $12.7M vs ($16.5M) YoY on land and equipment sale gains, despite lower production; “Alico now expects to generate approximately $20 million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal year 2025” .
Strategic transformation progressing: “We completed our last major citrus harvest in April... negotiated agreements to lease another 5,250 acres... in discussions... clearing as many as 1,000 acres... in lieu of lease payments,” strengthening financial position .
Land monetization outlook raised: “land sales could potentially exceed $50 million this year,” from ~$20M previously, supporting cash and deleveraging objectives .

What Went Wrong

Significant GAAP loss: Net loss of ($111.4M) vs ($15.8M) YoY, driven by ~$119.3M accelerated depreciation on citrus trees and ~$25.0M impairment at one grove, partially offset by $15.8M gain on land/equipment sales and $26.9M tax benefit .
Production headwinds: Pound solids down ~19% YoY for the quarter due to fruit drop from Hurricane Milton; total boxes harvested fell ~21% YoY despite price per pound solids improving under a Tropicana contract .
G&A up YoY on transformation costs: higher legal fees, higher bonus accruals, and accelerated depreciation on administrative assets related to the transformation .

Financial Results

P&L Snapshot vs Prior Periods and Consensus

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q2 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$18.11	$16.89	$17.98	$22.20*
Gross Profit (Loss) ($USD Millions)	($18.16)	($8.24)	($149.70)	n/a
Operating Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	($20.48)	($10.82)	($153.09)	n/a
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	($16.01)	($9.17)	($111.43)	n/a
Diluted EPS ($)	($2.07)	($1.20)	($14.58)	($0.36)*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	($16.47)	($6.67)	($14.74)	n/a
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	($16.47)	$0.75	$12.73	n/a

Consensus miss/beat: Revenue $17.98M vs $22.20M consensus (MISS); EPS ($14.58) vs ($0.36) consensus (MISS) [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*.

Segment Revenue (Quarterly)

Segment ($USD Millions)	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Alico Citrus	$17.76	$16.33	$17.25
Land Management & Other	$0.35	$0.57	$0.73
Total	$18.11	$16.89	$17.98

KPIs (Citrus Production and Pricing; Three months ended March 31)

KPI	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Total Pound Solids Produced (Millions)	5.77	4.67
Total Boxes Harvested (000s)	1,163	923
Price per Pound Solids – Early/Mid ($)	$3.06	$3.66
Price per Pound Solids – Valencias ($)	$2.91	$3.63

Notes: Adjusted EBITDA methodology was revised this period to adjust for impairment and restructuring, and not adjust for inventory NRV, gain on sale, etc.; prior periods recast (Q2 2024 adjusted reduced by $17.8M; 6M increased by $48.4M) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Land Sales Proceeds	FY 2025	~ $20M expected to close soon	~$20M expected + potential additional ~$30M or more (i.e., potentially >$50M)	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	n/a	~ $20M	Introduced
Year-End Cash	FY 2025	“Enough cash to meet operating expenses for FY26–FY27”	~$25M cash; also reiterates enough cash to meet operating expenses through FY27	Introduced (specific target)
Net Debt	FY 2025E	n/a	~ $60M; only $2.5M min balance on revolver	Introduced
Liquidity/Maturities	Ongoing	$73.5M availability (Q1 snapshot)	$88.5M availability; no significant maturities until 2029	Improved availability

Dividend: Paid $0.05/share on April 11, 2025 (disclosure; not guidance) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
Strategic Transformation / Citrus Wind-Down	Cautious outlook; inventory impairments; challenges from greening and hurricanes; evaluating land use alternatives	Last major harvest done; workforce reduced ~200→25; leasing 5,250 acres; diversifying ag uses	Execution advancing
Land Monetization	FY24: 18,354 acres sold for ~$86.2M; strong RLOC capacity	2,100 acres sold in Q2; raising FY25 land sales outlook to potentially >$50M	Acceleration
Real Estate Development (Corkscrew Grove Villages)	Multi-year entitlement process progressing; environmental assessments underway	East Village application filed; construction could begin 2028/29 if approvals granted	Milestones initiated
Capital Structure / Liquidity	RLOC to 2034; $86.6M available (FY24 end)	Credit agreement amended; insurance requirements reduced; $88.5M availability	Flexibility improved
Capital Returns	Regular dividend maintained	Announced $50M share repurchase program as part of balanced capital allocation (call)	Potential upside if cash builds

Management Commentary

“We completed our last major citrus harvest in April... [and] have negotiated agreements to lease another 5,250 acres... next season... winding down our capital‑intensive citrus production [has] strengthened our financial position.” – CEO John Kiernan .
“Our Strategic Transformation to become a diversified land company has already exceeded our fiscal year 2025 goals... we are forecasting... cash... ~ $25 million, net debt... ~ $60 million... [and] approximately $20 million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal year 2025.” – CEO .
“Collectively, these four near‑term development properties... totaling approximately 5,500 acres, are estimated to be worth between $335 million and $380 million in present value dollars... present value of our current land holdings could be worth approximately $650 million to $750 million.” – CEO (call) .

Q&A Highlights

Land sale detail: $15.8M gain in quarter tied to ~2,100 acres, located in Hendry County (per CFO) .
FY25 land sale runway: One negotiated agreement currently in diligence; management talking to several parties for additional transactions; timing uncertain until closings occur .
Corkscrew milestones: Watch for entitlement approvals at local, state, and federal levels through 2026; construction possible 2028/29 contingent on approvals .

Estimates Context

Revenue and EPS vs S&P Global consensus: Q2 revenue $17.98M vs $22.20M; Q2 EPS ($14.58) vs ($0.36). Both missed due to non-cash accelerated depreciation and impairments tied to citrus wind‑down; only one estimate on each metric underscores limited coverage and high variance risk [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*.
Where estimates may adjust: Analysts may raise FY25 Adjusted EBITDA and cash expectations contingent on land sales exceeding $50M, but lower GAAP EPS near‑term to reflect transformation charges and ongoing asset sales accounting .

Key Takeaways for Investors

The transformation is the equity story: execution on land monetization and entitlements, not citrus yields, will drive value; watch for additional land sale closings and Corkscrew approvals through 2026 .
Near-term GAAP noise from accelerated depreciation and impairments should be separated from cash and Adjusted EBITDA trajectory; FY25 targets: ~$20M Adjusted EBITDA, ~$25M cash, ~$60M net debt .
Liquidity is robust with ~$88.5M revolver availability and no major maturities until 2029, supporting opportunistic buybacks (authorized up to $50M on the call), dividends, and debt reduction as proceeds build .
Citrus exposure is rapidly diminishing; diversified ag leases (e.g., sod, seasonal crops) and mining royalties plus real estate monetization reduce operational volatility over time .
Stock catalysts: 1) land sale announcements and closings, 2) entitlement milestones for Corkscrew, 3) capital return updates as cash builds, 4) clarity on FY25 Adjusted EBITDA delivery against ~$20M target .

Asterisked consensus values in tables and comparisons are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Citations

Q2 2025 8-K press release and exhibits:
Q2 2025 earnings press release:
Q2 2025 earnings call transcript: and duplicate
Q1 2025 press release and 8-K:
Q4 2024 8-K press release:
Credit agreement amendment PR (Apr 1, 2025):
Strategic transformation/Corkscrew PR (Mar 13, 2025):

ALICO, INC. (ALCO)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary